Bitcoin MVRV and MVRV Z-Score Explained: How to Read Them and Where to Get the Data
What Bitcoin MVRV and MVRV Z-Score measure, how they are calculated, how to read the zones, where the data comes from (Coin Metrics, CoinGlass, Glassnode) and their limits.
MVRV in one sentence
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares Bitcoin's market capitalisation with its realized capitalisation: the value of every coin at the price it last moved onchain. It is a measure of how much unrealized profit, or loss, the average holder is sitting on.
MVRV = market cap ÷ realized cap.
An MVRV of 1.0 means the market is valued at exactly what holders paid on aggregate: the average coin is at break-even. Above 1, holders are in profit on average; below 1, in loss.
What realized cap and realized price are
Market cap prices every coin at today's price. Realized cap prices each coin at the price of the last transaction that moved it. Coins bought at $20,000 and never moved are counted at $20,000; coins that moved yesterday at $75,000 count at $75,000.
Divide realized cap by supply and you get the realized price, the average onchain cost basis of the network. Because it only changes when coins move, it is slow and acts as a structural reference level. Price trading below realized price has historically marked deep bear-market lows.
Example with recent data: in early November 2026, with BTC near $75,000, the aggregate realized price was about $54,000 and Coin Metrics' MVRV read about 1.39. The average coin was roughly 39% in profit.
MVRV Z-Score
Raw MVRV has a problem: what counts as 'high' drifts as the market matures. The MVRV Z-Score normalises it.
MVRV Z-Score = (market cap − realized cap) ÷ standard deviation of market cap (computed over the full history).
It measures how far market value sits above its cost basis, in units of how volatile market value has been historically. A Z-Score near 0 means market cap is close to realized cap. Large positive values mean the market is far above its cost basis by historical standards.
Around the same date, BGeometrics reported a Z-Score of about 0.74: price above cost basis, but nowhere near historical extremes.
How to read the zones
These ranges are conventions drawn from past cycles, not laws.
MVRV below 1 (Z-Score below 0). Market below cost basis. Historically coincided with capitulation and cycle bottoms (2015, late 2018, late 2022).
MVRV 1 to about 2. Market moderately above cost basis. Typical of early recovery and mid-cycle.
MVRV about 2 to 3. Substantial unrealized profit; selling pressure from profit-taking rises.
MVRV above about 3.5 (Z-Score above about 7). Historically marked euphoric tops. Notably, each cycle's peak MVRV has been lower than the previous one, so waiting for the old extreme can mean missing the top entirely.
Where to get MVRV data
Coin Metrics community API publishes MVRV as CapMVRVCur, free, daily, with a long history. It is a good default for programmatic use.
Glassnode publishes MVRV, MVRV Z-Score and many variants such as long-term and short-term holder MVRV. Most of the detail is on paid tiers.
CoinGlass shows MVRV and MVRV Z-Score charts on its site and exposes on-chain metrics through its API; endpoint availability depends on your plan, so check before building on it.
BGeometrics (bitcoin-data.com) offers MVRV Z-Score and realized price through a simple API, with the most recent days delayed on the free tier.
Small differences between providers are normal: they treat lost coins, exchange wallets and data cut-offs slightly differently. Pick one source and stay with it rather than mixing.
Limits of MVRV
It is slow. MVRV describes the cycle, not next week. It tells you where you are, not when it changes.
Thresholds decay. Peak readings have fallen cycle after cycle as more supply sits with long-term holders and ETFs, so fixed thresholds from 2017 are unreliable.
It does not see off-chain flows directly. Coins held by ETFs and custodians move rarely, which changes how realized cap behaves compared with earlier cycles.
It says nothing about leverage. A market can have modest MVRV and still be fragile because perpetual futures positioning is crowded.
Use MVRV as cycle context, combined with drawdown from the all-time high, the 200-week moving average and derivatives positioning, not as a standalone trading signal.
How RiskState uses MVRV
RiskState uses Coin Metrics' on-chain MVRV as one input to its cycle-phase classification and the cycle cap, the limit on position size that applies at cycle extremes. MVRV never sets position size on its own: it is combined with drawdown from the all-time high, time since the halving, macro conditions and positioning.
The current cycle phase and the limits it implies are visible live in the app, and through the free MCP connector in Claude or ChatGPT.
MVRV in context, live.
See the current BTC cycle phase, realized price and the position limits they imply, together with positioning and macro.