The risk layer
for crypto.

BTCETHDeFi borrowing

A deterministic engine that turns live market state into exposure limits, leverage caps, and risk permissions before capital is deployed.

Where it sits

Between market state and exposure.

How live market inputs become risk permissions.

Market State
Price · Derivatives
On-chain · Macro
DeFi · Sentiment
9+ live feeds
ingests
RiskState Engine
Scoring
Regime
Policy
Deterministic · Auditable
outputs
Risk Permissions
Policy Level
Max Exposure
Leverage Cap
Allowed Actions
Blocked Actions
consumed by
AI Agents
Traders
Allocators

before placing orders

What you get

One engine. Two core outputs.

Available via API or Visualizer.

Context
Market state processed
Market Regime
PANICEUPHORIASQUEEZETRENDRANGE
Composite Score
0–30 Risk-off30–55 Cautious55–100 Favorable
Rules Engine & Alerts
CRITICALDANGERWARNINGOPPORTUNITYINFO
Signal Breakdown
STRUCTURALTACTICALMACROVOLATILITYTRENDDIRECTION
Control
Binding pre-trade gate
Policy Level
L1 SURVIVALL2 DEFENSIVEL3 CAUTIOUSL4 SELECTIVEL5 EXPANSION
Exposure Limits
Max positionX%
Leverage Caps
NO LEVERAGEMAX 2×FULL
Allowed & Blocked Actions
DCAWAITLONGSHORT
LEVERAGEALL_INAGGRESSIVE_LONG
+ Deployment guidance
AI-powered, policy-constrained

Two analysis modes:

Trading Mode
  • Tactical context & bias
  • Trade setups with entry, stop, target
  • Risk-adjusted sizing
  • Automated condition checklists
Allocation Mode
  • Structural outlook & cycle phase
  • Allocation limits per policy level
  • Drawdown risk assessment
  • Capital deployment ladder
  • DeFi borrowing aware

Who it's for

Built for agents, traders, and allocators.

Read the market. Enforce the limits. Deploy with discipline.

AI Agents
Trading agents, autonomous bots, agentic systems

Pre-trade risk governor via API.

Independent risk controls before execution.

Spot, perps and DeFi borrowing aware.

Traders
Discretionary traders and systematic directional operators

Market context plus binding risk limits.

Regime-aware sizing, leverage, and borrowing discipline.

Guardrails for deployment.

Allocators
Funds, treasuries, and long-term capital allocators

Deployment pacing + exposure governance.

Regime-aware accumulation, borrowing and de-risking.

Disciplined capital deployment.

How it works

From signals to permissions in seconds.

RiskState policy engine converts market state into dynamic risk permissions.

01
30+ Signals

Market, on-chain, macro, derivatives, DeFi health

02
Market State

Normalize, composite score, regime detection

03
Policy Engine

4 independent caps × quality × volatility

04
Risk Permissions

Max size, leverage, allowed/blocked actions

5-level policy output

L1
BLOCK
Survival
Reduce exposure, hedge only
L2
DEFENSIVE
Protection
Wait, hedge, small scalps
L3
CAUTIOUS
Controlled risk
R:R >2:1 only, DCA
L4
SELECTIVE
Conditional
Trade with confirmation
L5
EXPANSION
Full
Leverage, full operations

API Preview

One endpoint. Full risk enforcement.

Designed as a binding risk layer for agents and execution systems.

Request
curl -X POST https://riskstate.netlify.app/v1/risk-state \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $RISKSTATE_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"asset": "BTC"}'
Response
{
  "exposure_policy": {
    "max_size_fraction": 0.42,          // ◀
    "leverage_allowed": true,            // ◀
    "allowed_actions": ["DCA", "LONG_SHORT_CONFIRMED"],
    "blocked_actions": ["ALL_IN", "LEVERAGE_GT_2X"]
  },
  "tactical_state": "LEAN BULL",        // ◀
  "market_regime": "TREND",
  "policy_level": 4,
  "binding_constraint": {
    "source": "MACRO",                   // ◀
    "reason_codes": ["MACRO_NEUTRAL", "COUPLING_NORMAL"]
  },
  "risk_flags": {
    "structural_blockers": [],
    "context_risks": ["HIGH_COUPLING", "TREND_NOT_CONFIRMED"]
  }
}

Trust

Why RiskState is trustworthy.

Built for systems that require consistent, auditable risk decisions.

Deterministic
policy engine

Same inputs, same outputs, always. SHA-256 policy hashes on every response. No stochastic decisions, no hidden state. The policy function is pure.

Mathematically Audited
peer-reviewed

External mathematical review of all scoring functions and normalization curves. Smooth sigmoids, logistic policy caps, Fisher z-transform confidence intervals. Every formula verified for continuity and boundary behavior.

Forward-Validated
500+ snapshots

Real market snapshots with forward returns across bull, bear, and sideways regimes. Quintile monotonicity testing, autocorrelation-adjusted sample sizes. Not backtested — continuously validated.

Not a black box
Inspect the risk engine in real time.

A human-readable view of how RiskState reaches risk decisions.

RiskState Visualizer
Independent
External and pluggable

RiskState does not generate signals, execute trades or custody assets. It plugs into your stack as an independent risk layer between market state and capital deployment.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions.

Request early access.

Free during beta. API key delivered instantly.

v1.1 live · deterministic · verifiable outputs