Risk limits
for autonomous crypto agents.

A deterministic policy engine that tells AI agents how much risk is allowed. 30+ real-time signals. 5-level policy. Verifiable audit trail.

v1.1 live · BTC & ETH

LLM AgnosticClaude·GPT·Gemini·Kimi·MiniMax·DeepSeek·LlamaAny Agent FrameworkOpenClaw·Hermes·LangChain·CrewAI·AutoGenAgent EcosystemGiza·BNKR·NickAI·Ottie·HeyElsa·AsterAny Execution LayerDEX·CEX·Trading System·Ethereum·L2·EVM·BitcoinWalletsCoinbase Agentic Wallet·SafeAgent Paymentsx402·AgentCash·L402DeFi LendingAave·Spark·MorphoAssetsBTC·ETHLLM AgnosticClaude·GPT·Gemini·Kimi·MiniMax·DeepSeek·LlamaAny Agent FrameworkOpenClaw·Hermes·LangChain·CrewAI·AutoGenAgent EcosystemGiza·BNKR·NickAI·Ottie·HeyElsa·AsterAny Execution LayerDEX·CEX·Trading System·Ethereum·L2·EVM·BitcoinWalletsCoinbase Agentic Wallet·SafeAgent Paymentsx402·AgentCash·L402DeFi LendingAave·Spark·MorphoAssetsBTC·ETH

The problem

AI agents lack risk enforcement before execution.

No policy gate

Execution stacks handle signals, routing, custody and security. Market-aware risk permissioning is still missing.

Static limits don't adapt

Fixed caps and static guardrails behave the same in a crash and a breakout. Markets change. Your limits should too.

Autonomous ≠ uncontrolled

Agents can decide what to do. A separate policy layer should decide how much risk is allowed.

Raw models find reasons to break discipline.
RiskState prevents:

  • Blowups and ruin risk
  • Oversized positions in weak conditions
  • Leverage when the market doesn't support it
  • Overtrading in low-quality setups
  • Blind risk-taking on top of unhealthy DeFi loans

How it works

From signals to permissions in seconds.

RiskState policy engine converts market state into dynamic risk permissions.

01
30+ Signals

Market, on-chain, macro, derivatives, DeFi health

02
Market State

Normalize, composite score, regime detection

03
Policy Engine

4 independent caps × quality × volatility

04
Risk Permissions

Max size, leverage, allowed/blocked actions

5-level policy output

L1
BLOCK
Survival
Reduce exposure, hedge only
L2
DEFENSIVE
Protection
Wait, hedge, small scalps
L3
CAUTIOUS
Controlled risk
R:R >2:1 only, DCA
L4
SELECTIVE
Conditional
Trade with confirmation
L5
EXPANSION
Full
Leverage, full operations

API Preview

One endpoint. Full risk enforcement.

Designed as a binding risk layer for agents and execution systems.

Request
curl -X POST https://riskstate.ai/v1/risk-state \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $RISKSTATE_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"asset": "BTC"}'
Response
{
  "exposure_policy": {
    "max_size_fraction": 0.42,          // ◀
    "leverage_allowed": true,            // ◀
    "allowed_actions": ["DCA", "LONG_SHORT_CONFIRMED"],
    "blocked_actions": ["ALL_IN", "LEVERAGE_GT_2X"]
  },
  "tactical_state": "LEAN BULL",        // ◀
  "market_regime": "TREND",
  "policy_level": 4,
  "binding_constraint": {
    "source": "MACRO",                   // ◀
    "reason_codes": ["MACRO_NEUTRAL", "COUPLING_NORMAL"]
  },
  "risk_flags": {
    "structural_blockers": [],
    "context_risks": ["HIGH_COUPLING", "TREND_NOT_CONFIRMED"]
  }
}

Exposure Policy

Binding

How much can I risk?

  • One number: max_size_fraction. Your agent’s hard ceiling on position size.
  • Enum actions (DCA, WAIT, LEVERAGE_2X) your agent reads directly. No parsing.
  • structural_blockers empty = go. Not empty = halt. Zero ambiguity.

Market Intelligence

Contextual

But why? Every number is auditable.

  • Tactical + structural + regime in 3 fields. Context, not a wall of text.
  • binding_constraint tells your agent exactly why it’s limited — debuggable.
  • include_details=true unlocks: squeeze detector, whale pressure, trend decomposition.

DeFi-Aware

Unified Risk

Your health factor changes your position limit in real-time.

  • Pass a wallet address. Health factor feeds directly into max_size_fraction.
  • DeFi lending risk × market risk = one position limit.
  • Protocol-aware: Spark and Aave V3 with per-collateral thresholds.

Integration

Pre-trade risk gate for any system

Three ways to connect RiskState to agents, bots, and execution stacks.

REST API

Live

Standard HTTP endpoint. Any language, any framework.

import requests

response = requests.post(
    "https://riskstate.ai/v1/risk-state",
    headers={"Authorization": "Bearer $TOKEN"},
    json={"asset": "BTC"}
)

policy = response.json()
max_size = policy["exposure_policy"]["max_size_fraction"]

SKILL.md

Live

Discovery standard for autonomous agent ecosystems.

# SKILL.md
name: riskstate
version: 1.1.1
category: risk-management
auth: bearer-token
endpoint: POST /v1/risk-state
assets: [BTC, ETH]
refresh: 60s cache, recommend 5min polling

MCP Server

Live

Native integration for Claude Desktop, Claude Code, and MCP-compatible clients.

// claude_desktop_config.json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "riskstate": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-p", "@riskstate/mcp-server", "riskstate-mcp"],
      "env": {
        "RISKSTATE_API_KEY": "your-api-key"
      }
    }
  }
}

Trust

Why RiskState is trustworthy.

Built for systems that require consistent, auditable risk decisions.

Deterministic
policy engine

Same inputs, same outputs, always. SHA-256 policy hashes on every response. No stochastic decisions, no hidden state. The policy function is pure.

Mathematically Audited
peer-reviewed

External mathematical review of all scoring functions and normalization curves. Smooth sigmoids, logistic policy caps, Fisher z-transform confidence intervals. Every formula verified for continuity and boundary behavior.

Forward-Validated
500+ snapshots

Real market snapshots with forward returns across bull, bear, and sideways regimes. Quintile monotonicity testing, autocorrelation-adjusted sample sizes. Not backtested — continuously validated.

Not a black box
Inspect the signals, scoring, and policy output behind the risk engine in real time.

A human-readable view of how RiskState reaches risk decisions.

RiskState Visualizer
Independent
no conflicts of interest

RiskState doesn’t execute trades, doesn’t generate signals, doesn’t hold positions. A pure risk engine with no skin in the game beyond your outcomes.

Request early access.

Free during beta. API key delivered instantly.

v1.1 live · deterministic · verifiable outputs

FAQ

Frequently asked questions.