How the Visualizer Works
A guide to reading every section of the RiskState Visualizer.
The RiskState Visualizer is a free, read-only view of the same risk engine that powers the /v1/risk-state API. It ingests 30+ real-time signals from public market data, normalizes them into a 0–100 composite score, and runs a deterministic policy engine that classifies current conditions into one of five risk levels. No black box — every signal, score, and rule is visible on screen.
The Visualizer does not execute trades, hold funds, or require any wallet connection. It is a transparency layer: inspect the data, understand the logic, and decide for yourself.
- Ticker Bar — headline metrics at a glance
- Global State & Policy — the 5-column decision grid
- Rules Engine — deterministic alerts
- Key Indicators — the signal grid
- Composite Signal — the single number
- Cycle Context — where we are in the cycle
- Macro Risk — traditional-finance context
- Institutional Flow — corporate treasury tracking
- ETF Flows — spot ETF fund flows
- Price Chart — interactive chart
- Funding & Open Interest — derivatives positioning
- Asset Selector — BTC vs ETH
01Ticker Bar
The horizontal bar at the top shows the most important market metrics in real time: total crypto market cap, the active asset price (BTC or ETH), BTC dominance, the Fear & Greed index, 24h liquidations, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
Market Regime Badge
A colored badge classifies the current market state into one of five regimes: PANIC EUPHORIA SQUEEZE TREND RANGE. This classification uses multiple inputs — volatility, regime direction, positioning data, and price momentum — to label the dominant market condition. Priority order ensures extreme states (PANIC, EUPHORIA) take precedence over structural ones.
Direction Badge
A second badge shows the structural direction: BULL, SIDEWAYS, or BEAR. This is derived from a multi-factor regime detector that considers price relative to key moving averages, momentum, and on-chain data.
02Global State & Policy
The five-column grid is the most important section. It compresses the entire risk picture into a single row:
Short-term bias (24–72h) derived from the composite score. Labels range from RISK-OFF to RISK-ON through NEUTRAL.
Multi-week context based on cycle phase. Shows where the market sits in its broader cycle.
Traditional-finance regime: RISK-ON, RISK-OFF, or NEUTRAL, based on yields, equities, and correlation data.
Current volatility regime: NORMAL, HIGH, or EXTREME. Affects how much exposure the policy engine allows.
Trend Strength (0–100): measures whether the market is in a confirmed trend or range. Uses moving average alignment, volatility expansion, and flow convergence. Labels: STRONG, ACTIVE, WEAK, NO TREND, or N/A when data is unavailable.
Policy Level
Below the grid, a colored bar shows the current policy level — the output of the deterministic policy engine. Five levels:
The policy level is computed from four independent caps (rules, DeFi health, macro regime, cycle phase), multiplied by a data quality factor and a volatility adjustment. The binding constraint — whichever cap is lowest — is shown so you know exactly what’s limiting exposure.
03Rules Engine
A list of deterministic alerts that fire automatically when specific conditions are met. No AI involved — pure if-then logic. Rules are sorted by severity:
Rules cover macro conditions (yields, equity correlation), positioning extremes (funding, basis, open interest), on-chain metrics, ETF flow patterns, and trend-vs-composite divergences. The count in the header badge tells you how many alerts are active.
04Key Indicators
A grid of individual market signals, each displayed as a small card with the current value, a normalized score (0–100), and a directional label (bullish, neutral, bearish). The indicators shown depend on the active asset:
BTC Mode
RSI (momentum), MVRV & NUPL (on-chain valuation), Futures CVD & Spot CVD (volume flow direction), Funding Rate (derivatives cost), Long/Short Ratio (positioning), Exchange Netflow (accumulation/distribution), Whale Score (proxy for large-player activity), and Trend Strength.
ETH Mode
RSI ETH, ETH/BTC Ratio & Trend (relative strength), Futures CVD ETH, Funding ETH, Long/Short ETH, Whale Score, and Trend Strength. BTC-only metrics like MVRV and NUPL are replaced with ETH-native signals.
Each indicator’s color reflects its signal direction: green (bullish), red (bearish), yellow (neutral). These individual signals feed into the composite score.
05Composite Signal
The composite is a single 0–100 score that aggregates all normalized indicators into a weighted average. A semicircular meter visualizes the score with color zones:
- 0–30: Risk-off zone (red)
- 30–55: Cautious zone (yellow)
- 55–100: Favorable zone (green)
The score combines eight weighted categories: momentum (technical), derivatives, on-chain, sentiment, flow (ETF), liquidity, macro, and cycle context. Below the meter, a breakdown bar shows how each category contributes.
A “disposition” label translates the score into plain language: RISK-OFF, LEAN RISK-OFF, NEUTRAL, LEAN RISK-ON, or RISK-ON.
06Cycle Context
This panel shows where the market sits in its broader structural cycle.
BTC Mode
Classifies the current position into one of eight phases (BOTTOM, EARLY, MID, LATE, EUPHORIA, CORRECTION, POST-PEAK, LATE-CORRECTION) using on-chain valuation metrics, time since the last halving, drawdown from all-time high, and distance from the 200-week moving average. Also shows BTC Supply in Profit and Long-Term Holder supply.
ETH Mode
Shows the ETH/BTC ratio as the primary structural metric, ATH drawdown, 200-week SMA distance, and an Altseason Score (0–100) that gauges whether capital is rotating into altcoins based on dominance shifts, ratio trends, and small-cap equity performance.
07Macro Risk
Traditional-finance context that affects crypto risk appetite. Displays:
- U.S. Treasury yields (10Y, 2Y) and the yield curve spread
- S&P 500 and Gold performance
- Real rate (nominal yield minus inflation expectations)
- Fed liquidity regime (balance sheet trend)
- Correlation between crypto and equities (BTC/SPX in BTC mode, ETH/NASDAQ in ETH mode)
The panel classifies the macro environment as RISK-ON, NEUTRAL, or RISK-OFF, and shows the coupling level (how tightly crypto tracks equities). High coupling during a RISK-OFF macro regime means equity selloffs are more likely to drag crypto down.
08Institutional Flow
Tracks publicly reported corporate treasury holdings of BTC or ETH (depending on active asset). Shows the largest holders, detects changes between snapshots (buys and sells), and classifies the overall institutional trend as ACCUMULATING, DISTRIBUTING, MIXED, or NO CHANGE.
Data is sourced from public filings and aggregated by CoinGecko. Changes are detected by comparing the current snapshot with the previous one stored server-side.
09ETF Flows
Shows daily and weekly net flows into spot Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs. Includes the current day’s net flow, the weekly total, and the streak (consecutive days of inflows or outflows).
Sustained ETF inflows indicate institutional demand; outflows signal distribution. The streak metric helps distinguish one-off events from persistent trends.
10Price Chart
An interactive candlestick chart (powered by TradingView) with selectable timeframes (1H, 4H, 1D) and asset toggle (BTC/ETH). The chart updates independently of the asset selector, so you can view ETH data while the rest of the dashboard shows BTC context.
11Funding & Open Interest
A compact positioning intelligence panel showing derivatives data for both BTC and ETH:
- Funding Rate — who is paying whom on perpetual swaps, plus a percentile tag showing how extreme the rate is vs. its 30-day history
- Basis — the premium or discount of perpetual price vs. spot. Premium means longs are dominant.
- Open Interest — total leveraged positions, with a z-score showing how unusual current OI is vs. 30 days
- Long/Short Ratio — positioning crowding with a crowding label
Liquidation Bar
A visual bar showing the split between long and short liquidations in the last 24 hours, helping identify which side is under more pressure.
Squeeze Detector
Combines six weighted signals (funding, basis, crowding, liquidation imbalance, and more) to classify directional squeeze risk as UPSIDE (short squeeze probable), DOWNSIDE (long squeeze probable), or TWO-SIDED (bilateral tension). Includes a confidence percentage and a one-line actionable recommendation.
12BTC / ETH Asset Selector
The dropdown in the header switches the entire dashboard between BTC and ETH context. All sections adapt: prices, indicators, composite weights, cycle classification, macro correlations, ETF data, and institutional holdings change to reflect the selected asset.
ETH mode replaces BTC-specific metrics (MVRV, NUPL, exchange netflow) with ETH-native signals (ETH/BTC ratio, ETH structural score, altseason score). The composite recalculates with adjusted weights to account for the different data availability.
Data Sources
The Visualizer aggregates data from multiple APIs:
Data refreshes automatically when you load the page and can be manually refreshed with the REFRESH button. A 120-second server cache prevents excessive API calls.
Coming Soon — Premium Features
The Visualizer is free and will remain free. The following features are planned for users on the Builder tier or above:
The Visualizer is an informational tool. It does not provide financial advice, execute trades, or custody assets. Scores and classifications reflect a quantitative model’s output, not a human analyst’s judgment. Always do your own research. See our Legal & Disclaimer for full terms.